10月财政收支分析：财政收入修复，增支空间扩大

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In October, public fiscal revenue increased by 5.49% year-on-year, up from 2.45% in the previous month, while public fiscal expenditure rose by 10.37%, marking the first double-digit growth of the year[4]. - Cumulative public fiscal revenue from January to October showed a decline of 1.3% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 2.2%, while cumulative expenditure increased by 2.7% compared to 2.0% previously[4]. Fiscal Structure Insights - Total public fiscal revenue from January to October reached 184,981 billion yuan, with central revenue accounting for 44.6% (down 3.9% year-on-year) and local revenue at 55.4% (up 0.9% year-on-year)[4]. - Tax revenue constituted 81.5% of total revenue, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.5%, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3%[4]. Key Tax Revenue Performance - Major tax categories showed varying performance: domestic VAT decreased by 5.1%, corporate income tax by 2.9%, and personal income tax by 3.9% year-on-year[4]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth for domestic consumption tax was 2.4%, an increase from 1.6% previously[4]. Expenditure Breakdown - Public fiscal expenditure totaled 221,465 billion yuan from January to October, with central expenditure at 14.7% (up 7.9% year-on-year) and local expenditure at 85.3% (up 1.8% year-on-year)[4]. - The highest growth in expenditure categories was seen in agriculture, forestry, and water affairs at 10.4% year-on-year, while health expenditure fell by 8.5%[4]. Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue from January to October was 35,462 billion yuan, down 19.0% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue at 26,971 billion yuan, a decline of 22.9%[4]. - Government fund expenditure was 70,107 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with land use rights-related expenditure at 36,097 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.0%[4]. Investment Outlook - The gradual recovery of fiscal revenue, coupled with the introduction of a debt resolution plan on November 8, is expected to enhance fiscal expenditure growth, supporting overall demand recovery and further revenue improvement[5].