Nvidia(NVDA) 交银国际证券·2024-11-22 00:26Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for NVIDIA (NVDA US) [1][4] Core Views - NVIDIA's FY3Q25 revenue reached 32.5 billion and the forecast of 30.8 billion, up 17% QoQ and 112% YoY [1] - FY4Q25 revenue guidance is 5 billion higher than the previous quarter's guidance [1] - Non-GAAP gross margin for FY4Q25 is guided at 73.5% (+/- 50 bps) [1] - Blackwell has started shipping in FY4Q25, with management maintaining the forecast of "billions" in revenue for the quarter [2] - Gross margin is expected to dip to 70%+ before rebounding to around 75% as Blackwell shipments ramp up [2] - Hopper shipments in FY4Q25 are expected to remain higher than FY3Q25 [2] - Blackwell is predicted to surpass Hopper in shipments by FY2Q26 [2] - Management emphasized the importance of post-training scaling and inference time scaling, highlighting the role of reinforcement learning in improving model utility [2] Financial Forecasts - FY4Q25 revenue forecast is revised upward to 35.4 billion), with data center revenue expected at 190.9 billion [3] - Gross margin is expected to bottom at 71.9% in FY1Q26 and recover to 75.1% by FY4Q26 [3] - Adjusted EPS for 2025/2026 is forecasted at 4.32 [3] Financial Data - FY3Q25 actual revenue was 32.5 billion and a forecast of 37.5 billion (+/- 2%), with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5% (+/- 50 bps) [6] - FY26 revenue is projected at 173.4 billion [6] - Adjusted EPS for FY26 is projected at $4.32 [6] Industry Coverage - The report covers other companies in the tech industry, including SMIC (981 HK), AMD (AMD US), Maxscend (300782 CH), and Will Semiconductor (603501 CH), all with "Buy" ratings [7]