食品饮料板块2025年度策略：拐点之年，孕育新周期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, indicating the potential for a new cycle [2] - The white liquor sector saw a brief recovery during the Spring Festival in early 2024, but demand weakened post-peak, leading to a gradual valuation adjustment. Stimulus policies introduced in Q3 have since improved market sentiment [2][4] - The mass consumer goods sector has shown signs of fatigue due to weak consumer power, but high-cost performance products are gaining popularity. A moderate recovery in domestic demand is anticipated in 2025, driven by both internal and external factors [2][4] - The overall industry is at a bottom waiting for recovery, with policy space expected to open up [2] Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The food and beverage sector has faced pressure, with a year-to-date decline of 5.41% as of November 15, 2024. The sector's performance has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions and terminal demand [10] - The white liquor sector has declined by 8.10% year-to-date, while the mass consumer goods sector has shown a mixed performance, with soft drinks up by 19.09% [17] Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, it is recommended to focus on undervalued leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others. Additionally, companies like Shui Jing Fang and Zhen Jiu Li Du are expected to benefit from demand recovery [4] - In the mass consumer goods sector, attention should be paid to the restaurant supply chain, seasoning products, and the beer and beverage segments, which are expected to benefit from consumption policies [4] 2025 Outlook - The industry is expected to see a reversal in fundamentals, with a series of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand. The GDP growth rate is projected to remain strong, with consumer spending contributing significantly to economic growth [28] - The restaurant sector is showing signs of moderate recovery, with a positive outlook for food and beverage demand as policies take effect [28]