轻工制造行业跟踪分析：造纸龙头减产，行业有望迎来短期拐点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2024, paper prices have declined, putting pressure on the performance of paper companies. As of November 15, 2024, the prices for double glue paper and copper plate paper reached 5113 and 5340 CNY/ton, respectively, down 12.8% and 9.9% compared to the beginning of the year. Prices for boxboard, corrugated paper, and white cardboard were 3628, 2710, and 4155 CNY/ton, down 5.8%, 7.0%, and 13.3% respectively. The paper prices remain low this year [2][3] - Cultural paper is currently in a relatively off-season, with expectations that the demand during the spring and autumn school seasons will have a more significant impact on cultural paper prices. The low prices of packaging paper are more related to the demand environment, with domestic consumption still under pressure in 2024. The recent Double Eleven shopping festival had limited impact on packaging paper prices [2] - Due to the decline in paper prices and inventory issues, some paper companies experienced a slowdown in revenue growth and a decline in profits in Q3 2024. Leading companies showed stronger resilience in this environment [2] - Chenming Paper Industry reported a loss, with both debt repayment and financing capabilities declining. The company announced overdue debts and frozen bank accounts, leading to a net profit of -710 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2024. Financial institutions have also reduced loan amounts, causing short-term liquidity issues [2] - To cope with the short-term crisis, Chenming Paper has passively reduced and limited production, with an estimated total shutdown of 7.03 million tons of pulp and paper capacity, accounting for 71.7% of the company's total capacity [2] - The reduction in production capacity by leading companies is expected to bring a turning point to the paper industry in the short term. In September 2024, China's production of mechanical paper and paperboard was 13.333 million tons, up 2.5% year-on-year. The expected reduction in production by Chenming is likely to stabilize paper prices and improve industry sentiment [3] - It is recommended to pay attention to leading companies in cultural paper, such as Sun Paper, which is actively expanding high-end paper production, as well as Jiulong Paper, Bohui Paper, and Shanying International, as a recovery in paper prices is expected to boost their performance [3]