中原证券：晨会聚焦-20241122

Key Insights - China's non-financial direct investment abroad reached USD 115.83 billion from January to October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [6][8] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to evaluate the effectiveness of existing subsidy policies and prepare for next year's vehicle replacement policies to stabilize market expectations [6][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on enhancing innovation in computing power, algorithms, and data technologies, aiming to build a comprehensive industrial chain from smart chips to algorithm frameworks [6][8] Market Analysis - The software and home appliance sectors led the A-share market with slight fluctuations, while growth sectors showed upward trends [6][8] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.20 and 37.24 respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [6][8] - Recent high-frequency data indicates that social financing and CPI fell short of expectations, leading to market adjustments due to profit-taking from previously hot sectors [6][8] Industry Performance - The electric power and public utilities sector demonstrated stable performance, with a revenue of CNY 1.8748 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [13] - The net profit for the sector reached CNY 194.69 billion, up 9.67% year-on-year, with a net asset return rate of 7.84% [13] - The water and nuclear power segments are highlighted as areas of interest due to their robust performance [13] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the electric power and public utilities sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies in water and nuclear power for stable returns [13] - The lithium battery sector is recommended for attention, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 5.21% but a strong outlook due to the growth in the electric vehicle market [17][30] - The pet food industry is also noted for its growth potential, with a recommendation to focus on companies with strong market positions [27] Sector-Specific Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a decline in revenue growth, particularly in the liquor segment, which dropped from 15.19% to 0.73% year-on-year [19][20] - The gaming and advertising sectors are expected to benefit from government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with a stable demand outlook for the gaming market [21][23] - The packaging paper market is experiencing slight price increases, with expectations for improved demand in the coming quarters due to economic recovery [28]