国际市场表现 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 30,772.79 | -0.67 | | 标普 500 | 3,801.78 | -0.45 | | 纳斯达克 | 11,247.58 | -0.15 | | 德国 DAX | 12,756.32 | -1.16 | | 富时 100 | 7,156.37 | -0.74 | | 日经 225 | 26,643.39 | 0.62 | | 恒生指数 | 25,858.89 | -0.34 | 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | ...

基础化工 分析师：顾敏豪 登记编码：S0730512100001 gumh00@ccnew.com 021-50586308 行业逐步进入景气阶段，从供给与需求两 端寻找投资机会 ——基础化工行业年度策略 证券研究报告-行业年度策略 同步大市(维持) 基础化工相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《基础化工行业深度分析：前三季度盈利增速 提升，行业延续底部复苏 》 2025-11-21 《基础化工行业月报：行业反内卷整治继续深 入，关注相关受益行业》 2025-11-17 《基础化工行业月报：石化化工行业稳增长工 作方案出台，推动行业进一步提质升级》 2025-10-15 联系人：李智 投资要点： | 1. 2025 年化工行业回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 行业景气底部运行，盈利能力阶段性回落 4 | | | 1.2. 基础化工行业上市公司财报分析：行业复苏态势延续 5 | | | 1.3. 化工行业二级市场表现：2025 年以来大幅跑赢市场 10 | | | 2. 2026 年化工行业展望 | 11 | | 2.1. 固定资产投资逐步下行，行业供给格局有望修复 11 | | | ...

计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 AI 应用加快，全球格局重塑中 ——计算机行业年度策略 证券研究报告-行业年度策略 强于大市(维持) 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 1 日 投资要点： （1）国产替代：十五五自主可控将重点聚焦集成电路和基础软件领 域，政府信创采购将加大。EDA 成为美国出口管控的重点领域，国 产化需求正在细分赛道加速释放。国产操作系统鸿蒙迎来发展关键 期，有望受益于华为大力发展的 AI 业务，利好于生态伙伴的发展。 在海外 GPU 实质性断供的基础上，国产厂商迎来重要发展机遇，并 借助超节点实现突围。推荐个股华大九天（301269）、概伦电子 （688206）、金山办公（688111）。 （2）算力建设：海外科技企业资本投入再创新高，国内厂商受制于 芯片供给，Q3 出现资本开支的环比下滑，但是长期仍有加大趋势。 2025 年云计算厂商增速持续加快，部分数据中心厂商加快释放， 2026 年有望进入业绩释放期。AI 芯片性能持续提升，液冷经济性凸 显，正在成为主流方案。超节点需求下，AI 服务器对厂商的 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 汽车锂电行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 9440 ——市场分析 《市场分析：电子半导体领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-11-27 《市场分析：通信医药行业领涨 A 股小幅震 荡》 2025-11-26 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2025-11-25 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 相关报告 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 01 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周五（11 月 28 日）A 股市场先抑后扬、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡回落，盘中沪指在 3856 点附近获得支撑，随后股指震荡回 升，盘中能源金属、汽车、光学光电子以及化学制品等行业表现较 好；中药、银行、游戏以及保险等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈 现小幅上行的运行特征。创业板市场周五震荡上行，创业板成分指 数全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 ...

zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -13% -7% -1% 4% 10% 16% 22% 28% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.07 2025.11 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,888.60 | 0.34 | 深证成指 | 12,984.08 | 0.85 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,526.66 | 0.25 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,397.36 | 0.25 | | 中证 | 500 | 7,031.55 | 1.15 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment in November 2025, with high valuation growth stocks undergoing notable corrections while value and dividend stocks showed relative resilience [2][17] - Economic data for November indicated a weak recovery in investment and consumption, with exports declining due to high base effects and holiday impacts. However, CPI growth turned positive, and PPI declines narrowed, suggesting a mild recovery in prices [2][17] - The central bank's report emphasized maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions to support "steady growth," alongside various policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and private investment [2][17] Group 2 - For December 2025, a balanced investment strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend defensive assets like banks and power companies due to cautious investor sentiment, while also gradually positioning in high-growth sectors like TMT and industrial machinery as valuations have returned to reasonable levels [3][18] - The recommended stocks for December 2025 include: 002850.SZ Keda Li, 300037.SZ Xinzhou Bang, 601058.SH Sailun Tire, 603755.SH Richen Co., 300442.SZ Runze Technology, 002046.SZ Guoji Precision, 002714.SZ Muyuan Foods, 688041.SH Haiguang Information, 688498.SH Yuanjie Technology, and 688313.SH Shijia Photon [4][22] Group 3 - The monthly gold stock portfolio for November 2025 yielded a return of -2.16%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.21 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 1.82 percentage points [6][9] - The cumulative return of the monthly gold stock portfolio as of November 28, 2025, was 42.86%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 27.73 percentage points, while slightly underperforming the ChiNext index by 0.01 percentage points [13]

Core Insights - The food and beverage industry has experienced a stepwise decline in revenue growth since 2021, with a further slowdown in the first three quarters of 2025 [6][7][21] - Despite the overall decline, certain segments such as snacks and soft drinks continue to show robust growth, indicating emerging opportunities within the industry [6][17][64] Revenue Growth Trends - Revenue growth in the food and beverage sector recorded only 0.18% in the first three quarters of 2025, a decline of 2.29 percentage points from the first half of the year [7][8] - Among sub-sectors, snacks and soft drinks achieved significant growth rates of 30.97% and 10.93% respectively, while categories like prepared foods and health products saw revenue declines [8][13] Inventory Turnover and Sales Dynamics - The industry has seen a decrease in inventory turnover rates, indicating a slowdown in sales activity, primarily due to insufficient consumer demand [21][24] - Inventory turnover rates have declined from 2.05 in 2021 to 1.65 in 2025, reflecting a consistent downward trend [21][23] Profitability and Cost Pressures - The gross profit margin in the food and beverage sector peaked in 2024 but has since begun to decline due to rising costs outpacing revenue growth [24][25] - The gross profit margin was recorded at 49.53% in the first three quarters of 2025, down from 50.91% in 2024, highlighting the impact of cost pressures [24][26] Changes in Expense Ratios - There has been a significant reduction in sales expenses, with the sales expense ratio decreasing from 12.35% in 2021 to 11.07% in 2025, reflecting a shift in management values towards cost efficiency [40][41] - Management expense ratios have also declined, indicating a focus on internal control and cost reduction [44][46] Segment-Specific Growth Opportunities - The snack market in China has surpassed 1 trillion yuan and is expected to grow at a rate of 6% to 8% annually, potentially reaching 1.4 trillion yuan by 2026 [6][55] - The soft drink market is projected to reach 1.35 trillion yuan in 2025, with an expected growth rate of 8%, indicating strong demand in this segment [64][66] - The health products market is anticipated to grow to 800 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a 1.8 times increase since 2020 [75] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "market perform" rating for the industry, recommending investments in segments such as soft drinks, health products, baking, and snacks [6][54] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Baoli Food, Lihigh Food, and Xianle Health, among others [6][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry index experienced a decline of 2.34% as of November 27, 2025, reflecting a market performance that is in line with the CSI 300 index, which saw a return of -2.70% during the same period [4][7] - The report highlights ongoing issues with price competition in the industry, with regulatory bodies taking steps to address disordered pricing practices [4][15] - The domestic market for photovoltaic installations showed a month-on-month increase of 30.43% in October 2025, with a total of 12.60 GW added, although this represents a year-on-year decline of 38.30% [18] - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.40x, which is 47.77% below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index showed a volatile performance in November, with a significant adjustment in individual stocks, leading to a majority of declines across sub-sectors [7][11] - The average daily trading volume for the photovoltaic sector reached 77.21 billion yuan, indicating increased market activity despite the overall downturn [7] Industry and Company Dynamics - Regulatory efforts are focused on curbing price competition, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizing the need for a stable pricing environment [15] - In October 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation capacity reached 12.60 GW, marking a 30.43% increase from the previous month, while the cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 252.87 GW, a 39.48% year-on-year increase [18] - The report notes a significant drop in photovoltaic component exports, with a total of 19.40 GW in October, reflecting a 24.3% decrease from the previous month [23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies within specific sub-sectors such as energy storage inverters, photovoltaic glass, polysilicon materials, and integrated component manufacturers, as these areas are expected to see improved performance [4][16] - The ongoing process of capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape and improve the overall health of the sector [4][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The media index increased by 2.46% as of November 26, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices, which declined by 2.65%, 2.29%, and 4.48% respectively [3][13] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the policy environment for the media industry, with a more stable regulatory framework and supportive policies emerging [4][11] - AI applications are accelerating across various content sectors, including gaming, film, advertising, and publishing, contributing to performance improvements in the industry [4][11] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from improved policy environments and accelerated AI applications, which are expected to enhance both valuations and performance [4][11] - Specific attention is recommended for high-growth sub-sectors such as gaming, film, and advertising [12] Market Review - As of November 26, 2025, the media sector's PE ratio (ttm, excluding negative values) stands at 28.85 times, significantly above the average PE of 24.20 times since 2022 [19] - The internet advertising and marketing sub-sector saw a notable increase of 14.64%, while the internet audio and video sector experienced a decline of 9.91% [3][13] Industry News - The report mentions the release of a new AI model by Google, Gemini 3, which is expected to enhance AI capabilities across various applications [20] - The National Development and Reform Commission has initiated plans to promote digital transformation in urban areas, emphasizing the role of AI in cultural and tourism sectors [20] Monthly Industry Data - In October 2025, the domestic film market generated a box office of 2.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.94% [23][24] - The gaming market in October 2025 reported revenues of 31.359 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.83% [44][45]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, emphasizing a shift in investment logic from growth to quality, stability, and shareholder returns [4][5][6] - The electricity and public utilities index has underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a year-to-date increase of 7.43% compared to 14.12% for the CSI 300, indicating a potential for catch-up in the sector [5][12] Industry Overview - In 2025, the market-oriented trading electricity price has declined, leading to a decrease in revenue growth for power generation companies. However, effective cost control has allowed for an increase in net profit [10][16] - The electricity and public utilities sector achieved a total revenue of CNY 18,748.53 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.07% year-on-year, while net profit grew by 6.07% to CNY 2,065.15 billion [10][12] - The profitability of hydropower remains the strongest in the sector, with hydropower's gross margin at approximately 59% and net margin at around 44% [17][19] Hydropower Sector - Large hydropower companies possess unique business models and long operational cycles, making them attractive for long-term investment. Companies like Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower are highlighted as key players [4][47] - Hydropower generation is subject to seasonal fluctuations, but large hydropower enterprises can mitigate these through their reservoir capabilities, leading to more stable performance [51][53] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the top three hydropower companies by installed capacity are Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Guotou Power, collectively holding about 27.4% of the national installed capacity [60][62] Thermal Power Sector - The thermal power sector is expected to transition from a cyclical asset to a stable income asset, with improvements in coal price linkage mechanisms and auxiliary service revenues [6][47] - The gross margin for thermal power has increased by 2.51 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in profitability [19][17] Other Power Generation - The performance of other power generation sectors, including nuclear and renewable energy, is mixed, with nuclear power showing growth in generation but facing challenges from declining market prices [4][18] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing high growth in installed capacity but is also under pressure regarding profitability due to falling green electricity prices [4][18] Investment Rating and Focus - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the electricity and public utilities sector, suggesting a focus on companies with stable fundamentals and reasonable valuations [5][6] - Key investment targets include companies with high dividend yields and strong operational performance, particularly in the hydropower segment [6][47]