国君每日一图|航空:淡季布局正当时

Investment Rating - The report suggests an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The Chinese aviation industry is highlighted as one of the few sectors with a long-term growth logic that exceeds expectations, driven by substantial long-term demand and ongoing airspace bottlenecks [1]. - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to continue recovering through 2023-2024, with high oil prices validating the logic of rising ticket prices and profit margins [1]. - Future trends indicate a continued recovery in supply and demand, with expectations for an increase in profit margins due to market-driven ticket pricing and a slowdown in fleet growth [1]. - The industry possesses a significant upside potential with respect to falling oil prices; a static assessment suggests that a 10% decrease in oil prices could lead to an increase in net profits for the three major airlines by 3.5 to 4.2 billion yuan [1]. Summary by Sections - Industry Demand and Supply: The report emphasizes the substantial long-term demand in the aviation sector and the persistent bottlenecks in airspace, which are critical for future growth [1]. - Profitability Outlook: It discusses the expected recovery in profitability, driven by market dynamics and a potential increase in ticket prices, alongside a slowdown in fleet expansion [1]. - Sensitivity to Oil Prices: The report provides a static sensitivity analysis indicating that the industry's profitability is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations, with significant profit increases projected if oil prices decline [2].