国君非银|强化资负联动,回归利润“真实增长”

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on improving the stability of shareholder returns through better asset-liability matching during the interest rate downcycle [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights three main uncertainties affecting the core financial and dividend indicators of listed insurance companies post-new regulations: 1) Increased uncertainty in net profit growth due to a divergence between short-term profit driven by investment services and future profit pressures; 2) Increased uncertainty in net asset growth, where high net profit growth does not align with low net asset growth; 3) Increased uncertainty in shareholder dividend rates, influenced by new capital regulatory rules impacting solvency [1]. Summary by Sections - Net Profit Growth Uncertainty: The volatility in the investment environment leads to mismatches in asset-liability management, causing fluctuations in investment income that cannot be absorbed by the liability side [1]. - Net Asset Growth Uncertainty: The increase in traditional insurance's share results in significant pressure on asset-liability matching, particularly in the absence of long-duration assets and a high proportion of OCI stocks, leading to uncertainty in net asset growth [1]. - Shareholder Dividend Rate Uncertainty: If new accounting standards align with capital regulatory standards, the future solvency of insurance companies may become more uncertain, affecting the stability of shareholder dividends [1]. - Focus on Long-term Profitability: The report emphasizes the need for insurance companies to establish a performance assessment system that prioritizes long-term profit realizability and aligns shareholder returns with achievable stable dividend expectations [2]. - Investment Recommendations: The report advises that the recovery of the equity market will enhance short-term investment performance, and insurance companies should focus on the realizability of profits and strengthen asset-liability matching to stabilize dividend expectations during the interest rate downcycle [2].