快递10月数据点评：双十一周期拉长推动业务量增速回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][41] Core Insights - The report highlights that the logistics industry is experiencing a significant increase in business volume due to the extended Double Eleven shopping festival, with a year-on-year growth of 24.0% in October [8][14] - The report notes that the average industry price per package has decreased, indicating ongoing price competition, with a year-on-year decline of 15.3% [28][29] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape is evolving, with a focus on service quality becoming increasingly important for profitability, leading to a recommendation to pay attention to leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong [10][41] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The logistics industry has a market capitalization of approximately 326.5 billion yuan, with a circulation market value of about 288.2 billion yuan [5][6] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the industry stands at 17.71 [7] Business Volume Insights - In October, the total business volume for express delivery services reached 16.31 billion packages, marking a 24.0% increase compared to the previous year [16][22] - The growth in business volume is attributed to the early start of the Double Eleven shopping festival, which has led to a shift in seasonal peaks [14][25] Company Performance - The Tongda system companies, including Yunda, Yuantong, and Shentong, reported business volume growth rates exceeding 30%, outperforming the industry average by 6-8 percentage points [9][15] - SF Express also saw a notable increase in business volume, with a growth rate of 26.9% in October, surpassing the industry average [9][15] Pricing Trends - The report indicates that the average revenue per package for the industry has decreased, with specific declines noted for Tongda system companies: Shentong at 3.8%, Yunda at 11.4%, and Yuantong at 2.9% [29][31] - Despite the year-on-year declines, there are signs of a potential recovery in package revenue for Tongda system companies [35] Market Structure Changes - The report notes a slight increase in the concentration ratio (CR8) of the industry, indicating that leading companies are gaining market share [38][39] - There is a notable shift in regional performance, with the central and western regions showing increased demand and reduced costs due to improved logistics networks [38][40]