食品饮料行业周专题：白酒以控量去库为先，大众品关注竞争格局演绎

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, and an "Overweight" rating for several other companies including Jinshiyuan, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao [1][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor industry is entering a phase of quantity control and destocking, with leading companies proactively reducing production to alleviate sales pressure. Despite short-term sales challenges, there is a long-term certainty in boosting domestic demand [1][12]. - The food and beverage sector is expected to follow a two-step recovery process, with the first step focusing on short-term valuation recovery and the second on medium-term fundamental improvements [1][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - In October, both domestic and external demand showed signs of recovery, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [1][10]. - The report notes that the liquor industry is under sales pressure, but the implementation of existing policies and new measures is expected to strengthen economic recovery in the fourth quarter [1][10]. Core Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-certainty performance companies with stable dividend rates, particularly in the liquor sector, where Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are highlighted for their strong brand power [1][14]. - In the beer and other alcoholic beverages segment, Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are recommended due to their resilient performance [1][14]. Market Review and Valuation Tracking - As of November 15, 2024, the food and beverage index has decreased by 5.41% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 21.08 percentage points [1][20]. - The report indicates that the liquor sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 21.01, while the beer sector stands at 24.39 [1][27]. Macro and Industry Key Data Tracking - In October 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year, with food and beverage CPI increasing by 2.0% [1][29]. - The report also notes that urban residents' disposable income and consumption expenditure grew by 4.5% and 5.0% year-on-year, respectively [1][29].