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亿航智能:3Q24盈利能力持续改善,OC取证在即
EHEHang(EH) 华兴证券·2024-11-22 02:39

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for EHang Intelligent (EH US) with a target price of US18.84,indicatingapotentialupsideofapproximately2018.84, indicating a potential upside of approximately 20% from the current price of US15.67 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - EHang delivered 63 units of the EH216-S in Q3 2024, marking the first quarter of positive Non-GAAP operating profit and positive operating cash flow for four consecutive quarters [6][8]. - The company is expected to receive its first Operational Certificate (OC) by the end of this year, which could attract more customers [7][9]. - Revenue for Q4 2024 is projected to be around RMB 135 million, with an estimated total revenue of RMB 427 million for the full year, representing a year-on-year growth of 263.5% [8][10]. Financial Summary - The target price has been adjusted from US19.71toUS19.71 to US18.84, reflecting a 4% decrease [3][10]. - The 2024E EPS has been revised down to RMB 0.47 from RMB 0.86, a reduction of 46% [3][10]. - The 2025E EPS is slightly increased to RMB 2.72 from RMB 2.65, a 2% rise, while the 2026E EPS is raised to RMB 7.00 from RMB 6.72, a 4% increase [3][10]. - The company expects to deliver approximately 70 units of the EH216-S in Q4 2024, with a backlog of over 1,000 orders [18][10]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 have been slightly adjusted to RMB 4.31 billion, with a 12.6% reduction in net profit forecasted to a loss of RMB 2.29 billion [10][19]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is expected to be RMB 0.31 billion, down 45.1% from previous estimates [10][19]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of over 60% for the EH216-S due to a lack of direct competitors in the market [18][10]. Valuation - The report maintains a 10x P/S valuation for 2025, leading to the target price of US$18.84, which corresponds to a 20x P/S for 2024 [10][22]. - EHang's average trading multiple this year has been around 17x based on 2024 revenue forecasts, with the current valuation slightly above this average [22][10].