英伟达（NVDA）：业绩虽超预期但未能令市场完全满意

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NVIDIA is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $180.00 [8][9]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY25Q3 revenue reached $35.08 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 94%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2][5]. - Despite strong earnings and guidance, the market reaction was lukewarm, with shares dropping over 5% post-announcement due to concerns over declining gross margins and supply chain issues affecting revenue growth [1][2]. - The company expects FY25Q4 revenue guidance of $37.5 billion (+/-2%), surpassing consensus estimates of $37.08 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 73.5% (+/-0.5 percentage points) [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - NVIDIA reported FY25Q3 revenue of $35.08 billion, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.81, both exceeding consensus estimates [2]. - Data center revenue for FY25Q3 was $30.77 billion, up 112% year-over-year, accounting for 87.7% of total revenue [2][12]. - Gaming revenue for FY25Q3 was $3.28 billion, up 15% year-over-year, while autonomous driving revenue reached $450 million, up 72% year-over-year [2][12]. Product and Market Dynamics - The demand for AI inference is expected to grow, potentially surpassing training demand, although competition in the inference market is intensifying with players like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon entering the space [3]. - NVIDIA's Blackwell product line is anticipated to start mass production in Q4, with significant demand expected to outstrip supply in the coming quarters [4]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The report projects NVIDIA's FY26 PE ratio at approximately 35x, with a slight adjustment to FY26 gross margin from 75% to 74% due to anticipated pressure from Blackwell's ramp-up [5][25]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for FY25-27 have been slightly increased to $72.8 billion, $127.2 billion, and $146.7 billion respectively, reflecting strong operational performance [25].