XIAOMI(01810) 第一上海证券·2024-11-22 05:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of 32.91 HKD, representing a 17.54% upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone, IoT, and automotive businesses are entering a positive growth cycle, with revenue slightly exceeding expectations and strong cash reserves [2] - The company achieved 925 billion RMB in revenue in Q3 2024, a 30.5% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit reaching 63 billion RMB, up 18.7% YoY [2] - Cash reserves stood at 1516 billion RMB, reflecting a 9.7% YoY growth [2] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is showing initial success in the high-end market, with revenue reaching 828 billion RMB, a 16.8% YoY increase [2] - Shipments grew 3.1% YoY to 431 million units, driven by increased domestic high-end smartphone shipments and a 10.6% YoY increase in ASP to 1102 RMB [2] - The newly launched Xiaomi 15 series achieved strong sales, with expectations of further competitiveness in the 4000-6000 RMB price segment [2] IoT Business - IoT revenue reached 261 billion RMB, a 26.3% YoY increase, with gross margin hitting a record high of 20.8%, up 2.9 percentage points YoY [2] - Strong performance in domestic smart home appliances and global tablet/wearable businesses is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidies and holiday promotions [2] Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew 9.1% YoY to 85 billion RMB, with gross margin improving 3.1 percentage points YoY to 77.5% [2] - Global MAUs reached 686 million, a 10.1% YoY increase, with overseas internet services revenue growing 18.3% YoY to 27 billion RMB [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive business delivered 39,790 units in Q3 2024, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at 10,000 units [2] - The company aims to achieve 200,000 units in annual deliveries, with gross margin improving 1.7 percentage points YoY to 17.1% [2] - The SU7 Ultra model, with an ASP of 239,000 RMB, is expected to drive profitability as scale expands and promotional costs decrease [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 355.9 billion RMB in 2024 to 518.4 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit increasing from 19.9 billion RMB to 31.8 billion RMB over the same period [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 25.1 billion RMB in 2024 to 37.1 billion RMB in 2026 [5] Valuation - The target price of 32.91 HKD is based on 18x PE for core businesses and 12x PS for the automotive segment, implying a 17.54% upside [5]