航空业系列深度（一）：复盘历史行情，看油跌预期下航空投资机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The aviation sector is a cyclical strong performer, with investment opportunities arising from falling oil prices. Historical analysis since 2000 shows that each cycle of excess returns is based on demand cycles, with oil prices acting as a supplementary factor. Notably, the 2014-2015 period saw a decline in oil prices coinciding with investment opportunities in the sector [5][57]. - Lessons from the 2014-2015 market indicate that demand improvement, ticket pricing reforms, and market liquidity were key drivers. Current macroeconomic conditions are similarly benefiting from liquidity and economic stimulus, with oil prices expected to decline due to OPEC+ decisions and improving domestic demand [5][64]. - Supply constraints are solidified by upstream capacity limitations, with the aircraft delivery process disrupted by supply chain issues. The average annual growth rate of China's fleet from 2020 to 2023 was only 3.0%, significantly slower than pre-pandemic levels. Boeing and Airbus face production challenges, making recovery difficult [5][21]. - The macroeconomic outlook shows potential for demand recovery, with resilient aviation demand. Passenger traffic in the first nine months of 2024 has already increased by 11% compared to 2019. Despite concerns over ticket pricing, domestic demand is expected to improve due to fiscal policies and the easing of international travel restrictions [5][25]. - Investment recommendations include China National Aviation Holding and China Eastern Airlines for their growth potential, Spring Airlines for operational efficiency, and Juneyao Airlines for sensitivity to oil price changes. Attention is also drawn to Huaxia Airlines and Hainan Airlines [5][11]. Summary by Sections Historical Review - The aviation industry has experienced three major cycles of excess returns since 2000, with each cycle driven by demand and supply dynamics. The 2014-2015 cycle saw a 417% increase in the aviation index, driven by demand recovery and falling oil prices [5][58][72]. Supply Constraints - The current supply constraints stem from production issues in the aircraft manufacturing sector, with a significant slowdown in fleet growth. The average annual growth rate of the fleet is projected to remain below 4% over the next 2-3 years [5][21][77]. Demand Recovery - Demand for air travel is showing signs of recovery, with passenger traffic in early 2024 surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The domestic market is expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and international travel policy changes [5][25][80]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - Valuation metrics indicate that major airlines are trading near historical averages, with specific recommendations for stocks such as China National Aviation and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [5][11][12].