空调行业格局专题：探讨空调“黑马”小米未来成长

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for leading air conditioning companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Hisense Home Appliances, and Haier Smart Home [4][9]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's air conditioning market share has been steadily increasing since 2024, with shipment volumes reaching 690,000 units, 3.3 million units, and 1.7 million units in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 62%, 43%, and 55% [3][37]. - The rise of online channels and price increases by leading brands have contributed to Xiaomi's market share growth, with online retail sales market share reaching 11.95% as of Q3 2024, up 4.4 percentage points year-on-year [3][37]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with leading brands focusing on product innovation, performance enhancement, and brand building, which has created significant competitive barriers [4][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: The Rise of Xiaomi in Air Conditioning - Since 2024, Xiaomi has seen a continuous increase in its air conditioning market share, surpassing 6.79% in domestic sales share from 4.43% in 2023 [3][37]. - As of Q3 2024, Xiaomi's online retail sales market share reached 11.95%, ranking third in the industry [3][37]. Section 2: Factors Contributing to Growth - The online sales channel has become dominant, with the proportion of online sales in the air conditioning industry rising from 19% in 2016 to 56.91% in 2023 [3][52]. - Leading brands have raised prices, creating a significant price gap in the market, which Xiaomi has capitalized on by maintaining a product price range of 2000-2500 RMB [3][57]. Section 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The report draws parallels between Xiaomi and previous market disruptors like Aux, which also gained market share through aggressive pricing strategies [4][70]. - Xiaomi is enhancing its production capacity and expanding its offline channel presence, indicating a strategic shift towards a more balanced channel approach [4][4]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The air conditioning industry in China has room for growth, with strong overseas competitiveness. The report suggests investing in companies with stable performance and significant core competitiveness [4][9].