轻工制造：以旧换新政策持续推进，关注家居估值修复

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing industry, particularly benefiting leading companies due to the implementation of the old-for-new policy [2][11]. Core Insights - The old-for-new policy is expected to stimulate home consumption recovery, with top companies likely to benefit significantly. The estimated subsidy amount for home furnishing categories is projected to be between 83 billion to 167 billion yuan, potentially driving terminal sales of 437 billion to 875 billion yuan [2][16]. - The report highlights that the home furnishing sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, indicating substantial room for upward correction [2][11]. Summary by Sections Old-for-New Policy Impact - The old-for-new policy is supported by a 1.5 trillion yuan special long-term government bond, with subsidies expected to account for 5%-10% of this amount, translating to approximately 83-167 billion yuan for home furnishing [2][16]. - As of November 8, 2024, the usage rate of subsidies for home appliances was about 64%, with expectations for similar trends in home furnishing categories [2][16]. Regional Implementation - The report notes that the implementation of the old-for-new policy varies by region, with some provinces like Guangdong and Hunan showing high coverage for smart home products [2][19]. - The report anticipates a nationwide rollout of the home furnishing subsidy policy, as many regions are still in the early stages of implementation [2][24]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading home furnishing companies with strong channel coverage and financial strength, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhibang Home, which are well-positioned to benefit from the policy [2][3][28]. - Companies that actively engage in the old-for-new subsidy activities are expected to capture market orders quickly and improve operational performance [2][28].