石油加工行业：特朗普新任期将会如何影响油价？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the potential impact of Trump's re-election on oil prices, emphasizing his intention to significantly increase oil production to reduce energy costs and inflation [2][10]. - It highlights the consistency of Trump's energy policies with his previous term, focusing on traditional fossil fuels and energy exports while deprioritizing climate change issues [2][11]. - The report suggests that while Trump's policies may lead to increased production, the effectiveness could be limited due to resource quality degradation, rising production costs, and cautious behavior from shale oil producers [2][24][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Trump's Previous Energy Policies and Effects - Trump's energy policy during his last term was centered around the "America First Energy Plan," which aimed to boost fossil fuel production and exports while minimizing environmental regulations [11][12]. - The report notes that during Trump's term, U.S. crude oil production saw significant growth, with an average daily increase exceeding one million barrels from 2018 to 2019, while oil prices stabilized around $60 per barrel [11][12][23]. 2. Expected Energy Policies and Effects in Trump's Next Term - The report outlines Trump's plans to expedite federal drilling permits, eliminate regulatory hurdles, and replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) [24][30]. - It anticipates that the impact of these policies on U.S. oil production may be constrained by factors such as resource limitations, rising drilling costs, and a cautious approach from shale oil producers [24][26][30]. - The report also discusses the potential for reduced tax burdens on oil and gas companies, which could lower production costs [40][41]. 3. Oil Price Dynamics - The report indicates that the influence of U.S. oil production on global oil prices may diminish, as the U.S. faces resource constraints and rising costs, while OPEC+ retains significant control over oil prices [46][50]. - It concludes that despite potential increases in U.S. production, the overall supply-demand balance and OPEC+'s willingness to maintain high prices will continue to support oil prices in the medium to high range [50].