天平的倾斜

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar has strengthened significantly, leading to a correction in non-ferrous metals, with zinc showing relatively small adjustments due to strong supply contradictions[2] - The current zinc price is under pressure from weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation expectations, indicating a potential downward trend in the valuation center of zinc[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Zinc smelters are recovering slowly, maintaining low monthly production levels, with limited recovery space on the supply side[2] - Total zinc supply for November 2024 is projected at 54.10 million tons, while total consumption is expected to be 52.60 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 1.50 million tons[5] Group 3: Price and Profitability - The average smelting profit has increased to approximately -2000 yuan per ton, with domestic smelting profits rising to 1500 yuan per metal ton[8] - The current processing fee for domestic zinc ore has increased by 100 yuan to an average of 1350 yuan per metal ton, reflecting tight supply conditions[39] Group 4: Inventory Trends - As of the latest report, the total zinc inventory in seven regions has increased by 0.74 million tons year-on-year, reaching 12.74 million tons[19] - LME zinc delivery inventory reported at 242,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a slight reduction in overseas inventory[19]