鼎通科技：经营拐点已至，光铜双受益

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's operating inflection point has arrived, benefiting from both optical and copper sectors [1] - Q3 2024 revenue and net profit grew significantly: revenue reached 2.51 billion yuan (+58.15% YoY), net profit reached 29 million yuan (+262.57% YoY) [1] - Communication new products (e.g., 112G) showed rapid growth, while older products (e.g., 56G) dragged performance [1] - Automotive business remained stable, with overall profitability improving [1] - Gross margin continued to improve due to product structure optimization [1] Future Outlook - Communication business to benefit from both optical and copper sectors [2] - 112G optical products and 800G optical modules to directly benefit from AI-driven demand [2] - 56G product demand is gradually recovering, contributing more to revenue and profit [2] - The company is a core supplier of high-speed I/O and backplane connectors for major clients like Amphenol, Molex, and TE Connectivity [2] - Potential benefits from GB200 demand surge, as the company is a key supplier to Amphenol [2] - Malaysia factory expected to alleviate pressure and support global business growth [2] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 703 million yuan (+43.24% YoY), net profit: 78 million yuan (+47.72% YoY) [1] - 2024-2026 forecasted net profit: 115 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 221 million yuan, respectively [3] - 2024-2026 forecasted PE ratios: 44.3x, 30.0x, and 23.1x [3] - 2024-2026 forecasted revenue growth rates: 41.0%, 37.9%, and 28.0% [6] - 2024-2026 forecasted gross margins: 72.9%, 47.8%, and 30.0% [6] Market Data - Closing price as of November 18, 2024: 36.76 yuan [4] - Total shares outstanding: 138.73 million [4] - Net assets: 1.77 billion yuan, total assets: 2.07 billion yuan [4] - Net asset per share: 12.77 yuan [4] Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 forecasted ROE: 29.0%, 29.6%, and 29.5% [6] - 2024-2026 forecasted EPS: 0.83 yuan, 1.23 yuan, and 1.59 yuan [6] - 2024-2026 forecasted asset turnover ratios: 47.3%, 58.3%, and 66.7% [8] - 2024-2026 forecasted debt-to-asset ratios: 15.1%, 22.7%, and 25.7% [8]