2025年电煤长协任务量下降，煤企综合售价或边际抬升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [3] Core Views - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [5][16] - The supply side shows an increase in the utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines to 98.9% (+0.8 percentage points), while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is at 90.93% (+1.15 percentage points) [5][16] - Demand from inland provinces has increased by 30,000 tons/day (+8.46%), while coastal provinces have seen a slight decrease of 0.20 tons/day (-0.1%) [5][16] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice regarding the signing and performance of long-term contracts for electric coal in 2025, reducing the task volume for coal companies from 80% to 75% compared to 2024 [5][16] - The report anticipates that the relaxation of long-term contract requirements will increase market coal supply, although the increment may be less than the relaxation space [5][16] Summary by Sections Section 1: Weekly Core Views and Key Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of low-cost coal sector allocation during the current economic cycle [5][16] - It highlights the expected increase in daily coal consumption as temperatures drop and heating begins in northern regions [5][16] - The report notes that the high inventory levels at downstream power plants may lead to increased winter coal procurement needs [5][16] Section 2: Coal Price Tracking - As of November 23, the market price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port is 827 RMB/ton, down 13 RMB/ton from the previous week [3][27] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1,700 RMB/ton [3][27] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle is 89.8 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3][27] Section 3: Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report indicates that the supply of coal remains tight, with a need for new quality capacity to meet medium to long-term energy demands [7][17] - The report also notes that the coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividend attributes, making it a robust investment opportunity [7][17] Section 4: Coal Inventory Situation - The report provides insights into coal inventory levels, indicating fluctuations in stock across various regions [20][21] Section 5: Coal Transportation Situation - The report discusses coal transportation metrics, including the volume transported via major rail lines [20][21] Section 6: Weather Conditions - The report includes weather forecasts that may impact coal consumption and supply dynamics [20][21] Section 7: Company Valuation and Key Announcements - The report highlights key companies in the coal sector, focusing on their growth potential and market positioning [7][17]