锦江酒店：从规模到效益，品牌矩阵升级开启新篇章

Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target market value of 35 2 billion yuan, implying a 23% upside from the current market value [7][12] Core Views - The hotel industry is in a bottoming phase with potential for upward elasticity as inefficient supply clears out [4] - The company has undergone four stages of development: asset integration, transformation, M&A expansion, and optimization, achieving significant growth and self-renewal [5] - Key growth drivers include self-innovation, brand matrix upgrades, store renovations, and membership system enhancements [6] - Overseas operations, particularly Louvre Hotels, are expected to improve through asset structure optimization and operational efficiency [6] Financial Projections - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 1 235, 1 373, and 1 467 million yuan, respectively [7][9] - Revenue growth for 2024-2026: -0 7%, 6 2%, and 11 6% year-over-year [9] - EPS for 2024-2026: 1 15, 1 28, and 1 37 yuan per share [9] Industry Analysis - The hotel industry is cyclical, with supply-demand mismatches driving cycles of recovery, prosperity, recession, and depression [4] - Light-asset models are becoming a major trend, with franchise models offering stronger economic resilience and higher profitability [4] - The industry is expected to recover as demand rebounds, driving occupancy rates (OCC) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) higher [5] Company Strategy - Focus on mid-to-high-end brands such as Liyi, Baiyulan, Lirui, Jinjiang Capital, Campanile, and Hilton Garden Inn to strengthen market competitiveness [6] - Renovation of existing stores and reduction of losses in directly operated stores to improve performance [6] - Enhance the membership ecosystem to increase direct sales ratio and customer loyalty [6] - Optimize the overseas balance sheet, particularly for Louvre Hotels, to reduce financial leverage and improve operational efficiency [6] Market Position - The company has a strong scale advantage, ranking second globally in terms of the number of hotels and rooms [100] - In 2023, the company's domestic market share was 17 62%, maintaining its leading position in China [100] - The company plans to develop 12 brands with over 1,000 stores by 2028, focusing on mid-to-high-end and economy segments [39][40] Operational Performance - Domestic RevPAR in Q1-Q3 2024 showed steady growth but faced slight pressure year-over-year due to changes in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Overseas RevPAR in Q3 2024 increased by 3 08% year-over-year, reaching 47 57 euros, with ADR rising by 6 3% to 73 04 euros [51] - The company's net profit in 2023 recovered to 91 7% of 2019 levels, with revenue reaching 97 0% of 2019 levels [45] Growth Catalysts - Recovery in tourism and travel demand, with non-manufacturing PMI showing signs of improvement [14] - Structural price increases in the industry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and market consolidation [70] - Expansion into lower-tier cities, where the hotel chain penetration rate is still low, presents significant growth opportunities [87]