化工行业周报：2024年11月第2周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The market remains cautious towards the petrochemical industry due to unclear oil price expectations following Trump's election. The shift in market sentiment has led to a slight decrease in risk appetite, favoring leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices. The instability in global situations has heightened the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. The report anticipates sustained prosperity and upward elasticity from supply-side optimization [20]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Product Information - As of November 15, Brent oil prices fell by 3.8% to $71.04 per barrel. Concerns over Trump's potential increase in oil production and EIA's slight upward revision of U.S. and global oil production forecasts have contributed to this decline. Additionally, OPEC's monthly report has lowered the forecast for oil demand growth, putting pressure on supply and demand dynamics [21]. - On November 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 429.7 million barrels, an increase of 2.1 million barrels week-on-week. Gasoline inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels to 206.9 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels to 114.4 million barrels [3][21]. Price Changes - Among the 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were Vitamin A (up 7.3%), dichloromethane (up 7.2%), and Vitamin B1 (up 7.0%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (down 35.3%), butadiene (down 13.3%), and international urea (down 7.1%) [4][22]. - Monthly price changes showed natural gas leading with a 26.1% increase, followed by Vitamin E (up 18.0%) and BDO (up 14.0%). The largest monthly declines were in butadiene (down 24.5%), styrene butadiene rubber (down 14.0%), and Vitamin B2 (down 10.6%) [4][22]. Price Spread Changes - The top three price spread increases this week were for BDO (up 27.3%), ethylene (up 21.3%), and MTBE (up 16.2%). The largest declines were in butyl acrylate (down 352.1%), butadiene (down 25.3%), and glycol ether (down 18.7%) [5][26]. - Monthly data indicated that the largest price spread increase was for styrene (up 2186.3%), followed by BDO (up 139.8%) and MTO (up 71.3%). The largest monthly declines were in R410a (down 300.0%), hydrogen peroxide (down 250.0%), and butyl acrylate (down 120.9%) [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) due to recent profit improvements in its core product MDI and upcoming production from petrochemical and new material projects. The acquisition of Covestro by ADNOC is expected to reshape the industry landscape [6]. - Royal Technology (603181, Buy) is highlighted as a leading specialty polyether company that has successfully navigated previous macroeconomic pressures and is now in a growth phase [6]. - Jinhe Industrial (002597, Buy) is noted for its leadership in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in its main products [6]. - Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) is recommended for attention as a leading player in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustainable phosphate ore market conditions and potential for improved dividends [6].