光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2024年10月）：政策组合发力，10月一线城市二手住宅成交面积同比+50%

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - In October 2024, the transaction area of new homes in the 30 core cities tracked by Everbright increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with a transaction price increase of 1.3% year-on-year. However, the cumulative transaction area from January to October 2024 decreased by 31.3% year-on-year [1][2] - The transaction area of second-hand homes in the 15 core cities increased by 21.2% year-on-year in October 2024, with a significant increase of 50% year-on-year in first-tier cities [3][43] - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of real estate policies in 2024, emphasizing the need for financial support for the real estate sector and local governments' autonomy in housing market regulation [4][66] Summary by Sections New Homes - In October 2024, the transaction area of new homes in the 30 core cities was 16.24 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% and a month-on-month increase of 48.2%. The cumulative transaction area from January to October was 119.42 million square meters, down 31.1% year-on-year [1][23] - The average transaction price for new homes in October 2024 was 24,558 yuan per square meter, up 1.3% year-on-year and 3.7% month-on-month [2][32] Second-hand Homes - The transaction area of second-hand homes in the 15 core cities was 14.20 million square meters in October 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 21.2% and a month-on-month increase of 30.7%. The cumulative transaction area from January to October was 124 million square meters, up 0.3% year-on-year [3][43] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in October 2024 was 25,035 yuan per square meter, down 0.5% year-on-year but up 4.3% month-on-month [56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: first, stable leading real estate companies with comprehensive development capabilities in major cities, such as China Overseas Land & Investment and Poly Developments; second, commercial public REITs with diversified asset resources, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][66][67]