有色行业周报：中国取消部分铜铝制品出口退税，缅甸稀土再添变数

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [9] Core Views - Recent economic data from the US shows recovery, with the dollar index strengthening, leading to fluctuations in gold prices. The initial jobless claims were reported at 217,000, lower than the expected 223,000, indicating resilience in the US job market. The October CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, halting a six-month decline, while the core CPI remained stable at 3.3%. The PPI also exceeded expectations, suggesting inflation is not balanced, which may affect the Fed's interest rate decisions. The dollar index reached a high of 106.67, putting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, gold remains a valuable asset due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising US government debt [4][24][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to experience short-term fluctuations but retains long-term investment value. Copper and aluminum prices are projected to improve in the long term despite short-term impacts from the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply situation for rare earths from Myanmar remains uncertain, with potential cost increases due to new resource fees [7][26][29]. 2. Weekly Sector Performance Review - As of November 15, 2024, the non-ferrous metals index decreased by 5.71% week-on-week, ranking 25th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 10.28% [30][32]. 3. Price and Inventory Performance 3.1 Precious Metals - As of November 15, 2024, COMEX gold closed at $2567.4 per ounce, down 4.62% from the previous week. COMEX silver closed at $30.335 per ounce, down 3.47% [43][44]. 3.2 Industrial Metals - On November 15, 2024, LME copper and SHFE copper prices were reported at $8969 per ton and ¥73860 per ton, respectively, reflecting decreases of 4.92% and 4.2% week-on-week. LME aluminum prices were $2663.5 per ton, up 1.39%, while SHFE aluminum prices were ¥20800 per ton, down 4.1% [5][50]. 3.3 Rare Metals and New Materials - The supply of rare earths from Myanmar is uncertain, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide decreasing by 1.18%, 2.57%, and 2.18%, respectively. Prices for magnesium ingots, antimony, germanium dioxide, molybdenum, tungsten bars, titanium sponge, vanadium, and gallium also showed declines [6][27]. 4. Important News of the Week - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024, which may widen the price gap between domestic and international markets [5][26].