汽车：以旧换新政策有望延续

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][82] Core Viewpoints - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue, potentially driving sales by over 1.4 million vehicles in 2024, with 1 million from scrapping and 400,000 from local replacements [10][11] - The policy is anticipated to stabilize the automotive market and stimulate consumer demand, providing new momentum for the industry's transformation and upgrade [11] - The automotive sector has shown resilience, outperforming the broader market index, with a year-to-date increase of 14%, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [12][18] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: Continuation of the Old-for-New Policy - The old-for-new policy is projected to significantly boost vehicle sales in 2024, with key officials indicating ongoing support and evaluation of the policy's effectiveness [10][11] 2. Market Performance - From November 18 to 22, the automotive sector declined by 2.2%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 2.6%, indicating a slight outperformance of the automotive sector [12][18] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 14%, placing it 6th among 31 sectors [12][18] 3. Key Industry Data 3.1 Vehicle Sales Data - From November 1 to 17, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.106 million units, a 30% year-on-year increase, while wholesale sales were 1.271 million units, up 37% year-on-year [33][36] - New energy vehicle retail sales during the same period were 581,000 units, reflecting a 66% year-on-year growth [33][36] 3.2 Inventory Situation - The comprehensive inventory coefficient for automotive dealers in October was 1.1, indicating a decrease of 14.7% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year, suggesting improved market conditions [37][39] 4. Industry News - Recent discussions regarding potential collaborations between major automotive companies and technology firms have been reported, indicating ongoing innovation and strategic partnerships within the industry [64][70][72] 5. Key New Vehicles - The report highlights the launch of new models, such as the small SUV from Geely, which is priced between 93,900 to 99,900 RMB [75][78]