中国太平：预计全年盈利增速较上半年提升，上调目标价

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for China Taiping Insurance (966 HK) with a target price increase to HKD 15.0, representing a potential upside of 25.4% [1][2] Core Views - The company's 2024 full-year profit growth is expected to accelerate compared to the first half, driven by a low base in the second half of 2023 [1] - New business value (NBV) growth is projected to remain ahead of peers, with a 56% YoY increase in 2024, following an 85.5% YoY growth in the first half of 2024 [2] - The report highlights that fiscal policy support is expected to continue, which will benefit the company's asset-side performance [2] Profit Forecast Adjustments - NBV for 2024E is revised upward by 3.2% to HKD 11,694 million, while the NBV margin is adjusted up by 0.6 percentage points to 31.2% [3] - Embedded value (EV) for 2024E is slightly increased by 0.1% to HKD 221,422 million, with a similar adjustment for life insurance EV [3] - Return on average equity (ROAE) for 2024E is adjusted downward by 0.1 percentage points to 8.8% [3] Financial Projections - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 40.3% YoY in 2024E, reaching HKD 8,685 million, followed by a 3.7% increase in 2025E [6] - Total investment yield is projected to improve to 4.01% in 2024E, up from 2.66% in 2023 [6] - Combined ratio for 2024E is forecasted at 97.5%, consistent with the previous estimate [3] Key Metrics - Life insurance premium service income is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2024E, while property insurance premium service income is projected to increase by 3.0% [6] - Contractual service margin (CSM) for 2024E is estimated at HKD 210,829 million, with a 0.2% YoY growth [6] - Dividend per share is forecasted to increase to HKD 0.40 in 2024E, up from HKD 0.30 in 2023 [6] Peer Comparison - Among peers, China Taiping Insurance has the second-highest potential upside of 25.4%, following China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with 31.4% [10] - The company is categorized as a mainland life insurer, alongside peers such as Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) and China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) [10]