海南橡胶：受益橡胶价格回暖，Q3归母净利润同比+38%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform the Market" [4][19]. Core Views - The company benefits from the recovery in rubber prices, with Q3 net profit increasing by 38% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company is the largest natural rubber planting and processing trade enterprise globally, and it is expected to fully benefit from the industry's upward trend due to production reductions in main production areas and resilient demand growth [19]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 32.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -461 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.95% [1][7]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 13.694 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.74% and a year-on-year increase of 33.67% [1][7]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.68%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.93 percentage points [10]. Profitability Metrics - The sales gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.88%, up 0.53 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was -1.43%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.37 percentage points [10]. Cash Flow and Operational Efficiency - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 190.81% [16]. - The inventory turnover days reached 43.10 days, an increase of 35.41% year-on-year, while accounts receivable turnover days were 14.39 days, an increase of 43.48% year-on-year [16]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company maintains a net profit forecast of 120 million yuan for 2024 and has raised the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 200 million yuan and 440 million yuan, respectively [19]. - Corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.03 yuan, 0.05 yuan, and 0.10 yuan [19].