2025年氢能年度策略：奇点将至，绿氢及商用车迎翻倍放量

Industry Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - 2024 is a preparatory year for the hydrogen energy industry, with policy promotion, demonstration effects, and cost reduction driving the industry towards commercialization [1] - By 2025, the green hydrogen project gap is expected to be 9-10 million tons (current capacity of 11 million tons), and the fuel cell vehicle gap is 25,000 units (current capacity of 25,000 units), with both sectors expected to at least double in scale [1] - Key investment opportunities lie in green hydrogen integrated projects and fuel cell vehicles, focusing on upstream hydrogen production equipment and green operators, as well as fuel cell vehicle components driven by subsidies and demonstrations [1] Policy and Market Drivers - Central and local governments have provided unprecedented policy support, with over 20 provinces issuing industrial development action plans, laying the foundation for a surge in 2025 [1][4] - Green hydrogen projects are shifting towards integrated development, with applications extending to wind-solar-hydrogen-ammonia-alcohol integration, which shortens project verification time and improves economic efficiency [1][5] - The cost of green hydrogen is declining, with equipment prices falling, making green hydrogen economically viable in specific scenarios such as ammonia/alcohol production and fuel cell heavy trucks [1][6] Green Hydrogen Integrated Projects - Domestic green hydrogen project capacity has exceeded 6 million tons, with current operational capacity at 1.1 million tons [1] - By 2025, green hydrogen projects are expected to see a surge in tenders, driving demand for hydrogen production equipment, with an optimistic forecast of 5GW of electrolyzer tenders [1][7] - Key players in hydrogen production equipment include state-owned enterprises and their subsidiaries, such as Huadian Engineering and Jilin Electric Power [1][10] Fuel Cell Vehicles - By 2025, the national target for fuel cell vehicles is 50,000 units, with a current capacity of 25,000 units, leaving a gap of 25,000 units to be filled [1][11] - The commercialization potential of fuel cell vehicles is supported by demonstrations, subsidies, and cost reductions, with high-value components such as systems, stacks, and hydrogen storage tanks benefiting first [1][11] Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main investment lines: hydrogen production and fuel cell vehicles, with key drivers being economic viability and application breakthroughs [1][15] - The hydrogen energy sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by policy support, demand realization, and new business model closures [1][15] - Key companies to watch include Huadian Engineering, Jilin Electric Power, Sumitomo International, Kewell Technology, and CIMC Enric [1][15]