宏观深度报告：“宽财政”博弈“加关税”——2025年度展望（二）：人民币汇率

Exchange Rate Outlook - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.10 to 7.35 before the implementation of new tariffs on China in 2025[1] - External risks may push the USD/CNY exchange rate to break the upper limit, potentially reaching 7.40 to 7.50[2] Economic Factors - The "basic盘" of the RMB exchange rate is influenced by strong export growth, with cumulative foreign trade income reaching $2.86 trillion and expenditure at $2.39 trillion from January to October 2024[3] - The "待结汇盘" (pending settlement) is estimated to be around $230 billion, which may stabilize the RMB exchange rate[4] Investment Trends - Cross-border capital flows are expected to be influenced by the performance of RMB financial assets, with a shift from "reducing stocks and increasing bonds" to "increasing stocks and reducing bonds" observed in 2024[5] - In September 2024, net inflows into securities investment reached $9.868 billion, marking the largest monthly inflow since 2018[6] Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China is likely to maintain a policy of preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations and managing market expectations[7] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and potential interest rate changes in Japan are critical for the RMB exchange rate outlook[8] Risks - Uncertainties surrounding the timing and scale of U.S. tariff policies and China's fiscal measures could lead to increased volatility in the exchange rate[9] - The potential for a significant depreciation of the RMB exists if trade tensions escalate, similar to the impacts seen during the 2018-2019 trade disputes[10]