百强房企销售跟踪（2024年10月）：政策“组合拳”利好明显，10月百强房企全口径销售金额环比增长70%

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [6]. Core Insights - In October 2024, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a year-on-year sales increase of 4.9%, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in 2024, although the cumulative sales from January to October still reflect a decline of 35% [1][39]. - The report highlights significant policy support for the real estate market, including measures to optimize financing and enhance local government autonomy in housing market regulation [4][70]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2024, the total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 465.4 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 70.1% [1][39]. - The average year-on-year sales growth for the top 50 companies in October was 10.1%, a significant recovery from the previous month's decline of 29.7% [2][50]. - The cumulative sales for the top 10, 20, 50, and 100 companies from January to October 2024 showed respective declines of 28.5%, 32.0%, 33.9%, and 34.8% [1][39]. Market Concentration - The market concentration for the top 10, 20, 50, and 100 companies in terms of sales amounts was 15.3%, 20.1%, 26.8%, and 31.6%, respectively, indicating a slight decrease year-on-year but an increase month-on-month [2][56]. Company Performance - Among the 20 major real estate companies, 10 reported positive year-on-year sales growth in October, with notable performances from China Overseas Land & Investment (+65.9%) and Sunac China (+58.2%) [3][64]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2024, China Overseas Land & Investment, Greentown China, and China Resources Land were the top three companies in terms of sales performance, with declines of 9.0%, 12.1%, and 22.4%, respectively [3][67]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines of investment: 1. Companies with comprehensive development capabilities in major cities, such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development [4][70]. 2. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) with strong competitive advantages in commercial real estate, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group [4][71].