家电行业2025年投资策略：政策加持，内需向好

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Hold" for 2025 [2]. Core Viewpoints - The home appliance sector has shown significant growth in 2024, primarily driven by valuation recovery, with the sector index rising by 24.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.9 percentage points [2][60]. - Domestic sales have stabilized and are expected to recover, supported by favorable policies and a strong performance in the last quarter of 2024 [2][68]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in both domestic and international markets, with a focus on the impact of government policies and the ongoing demand for product upgrades [2][68]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review: Sector Growth Driven by Valuation Recovery - The home appliance index has increased by 24.5% from January 1 to November 15, 2024, ranking fourth among all industries [2][60]. - Sub-sectors such as black and white appliances have led the growth, with increases of 37.3% and 35.0% respectively [2][60]. - Retail sales of home appliances showed a year-on-year increase of 7.8% from January to October 2024, with significant growth in September and October due to policy impacts [2][68]. 2. 2025 Outlook: Focus on Policy Dynamics and Domestic Demand - The report anticipates continued growth driven by domestic demand, supported by government policies such as trade-in programs [2][68]. - Export growth remains strong, with a year-on-year increase of 14.5% in the first ten months of 2024, indicating robust international demand [2][68]. 3. Financial Performance Review - The total revenue for the home appliance sector increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with varying performance across sub-sectors [2][77]. - The report suggests that the third quarter of 2024 may establish a revenue bottom, with expectations for improvement in the fourth quarter [2][77]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from the trade-in policies and domestic demand recovery [2].