地产大变局系列四：日本两轮地产危机复盘：为何90年代烈度远超70年代？什么房企能穿越牛熊？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes two major real estate crises in Japan during the 1970s and 1990s, highlighting the more severe impact of the 1990s crisis compared to the 1970s, with significant differences in government responses and economic conditions [1][12]. - The nominal housing price index during the 1991-2009 period saw a decline of 46.5%, while the actual housing price dropped by 44.8%, indicating a prolonged and severe adjustment phase in the 1990s [1][14]. - The report identifies key characteristics of real estate companies that successfully navigated through market cycles, emphasizing the importance of focusing on core urban areas and developing holding-type properties and service-oriented businesses [1][12]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Japan's Real Estate and Macroeconomic Performance - The nominal housing price adjustment during the 1970s was limited to a 5.4% decline over two quarters, while the 1990s crisis resulted in a 46.5% decline over 74 quarters [14]. - The report notes that the 1990s crisis had a more profound economic impact, with the nominal land price dropping by 52.9% compared to a 4.0% decline in the 1970s [19]. Section 2: Government Policies in Japan - In the 1970s, the Japanese government effectively implemented counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies, which helped mitigate the crisis's impact [42]. - The 1980s saw a shift to long-term accommodative monetary policies, which contributed to the formation of a real estate bubble [43][44]. Section 3: Nature of the 1990s Crisis - The 1990s crisis was characterized by a significant and prolonged decline in asset prices, leading to widespread balance sheet deterioration among households and corporations [1][12]. - The demographic decline and prolonged monetary easing contributed to the severity of the crisis, as the primary home-buying population decreased significantly [1][12]. Section 4: Real Estate Companies that Survived Market Cycles - The report highlights three major real estate companies (Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsubishi Estate, and Sumitomo Realty) that adapted their strategies post-1990s crisis by focusing on core urban developments and diversifying into property management and services [1][12].