Full Truck Alliance .(YMM) 东吴证券·2024-11-24 07:33Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue reached RMB 3,031 million, a YoY increase of 33.9%, with transaction service revenue growing by 69%, accounting for nearly 35% of total revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit increased by 50.2% YoY to RMB 1,241 million, with Non-GAAP net margin rising by 4.4 percentage points to 40.9% [1] - The company expects 24Q4 revenue to be between RMB 2,940 million and RMB 3,000 million, representing a YoY growth of 22.3% to 24.8% [1] Market Share and User Growth - Average shipper MAU reached 2.84 million in 24Q3, a YoY increase of 33.6% and a QoQ increase of 7.4% [2] - The proportion of direct shipper (688 members and non-members) fulfilled orders increased to 49% in 24Q3, up from 48% in 24Q2 [2] - The number of active truck drivers who completed orders through the platform exceeded 4 million for the first time in the 12 months ending September [2] - Fulfillment rate reached a new high of 34.5% in 24Q3, a YoY increase of 5.5 percentage points, with fulfilled orders growing by 22.1% YoY to 51.9 million [2] Monetization Efficiency - Transaction service revenue in 24Q3 was RMB 1,048 million, a YoY increase of 68.6%, accounting for nearly 35% of total revenue [3] - The monetization per order was RMB 24.4, a QoQ increase of 2.0%, with the penetration rate of commission orders reaching 82.8%, a QoQ increase of 1.7 percentage points [3] Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin in 24Q3 increased by 5.4 percentage points YoY to 55%, driven by the higher proportion of high-margin business revenue [3] - Total expense ratio decreased by 8.6 percentage points YoY and 2.2 percentage points QoQ, driving adjusted operating margin to increase by 8.9 percentage points YoY and 3.9 percentage points QoQ [3] Financial Forecasts - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 is revised upward to RMB 3.9 billion, RMB 5.1 billion, and RMB 6.5 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 14x, and 11x [4] - The company repurchased USD 40.3 million worth of shares from March 13, 2024, to November 20, 2024 [4] Market Data - Closing price: USD 9.37 [6] - 52-week low/high: USD 5.59/10.29 [6] - Price-to-book ratio: 1.98x [6] - Market capitalization: USD 9,798.68 million [6] Key Financial Ratios - ROIC: 3.3% (2023A), 6.3% (2024E), 8.7% (2025E), 11.3% (2026E) [10] - ROE: 6.3% (2023A), 9.5% (2024E), 12.1% (2025E), 14.5% (2026E) [10] - Gross margin: 51.2% (2023A), 54.5% (2024E), 57.5% (2025E), 59.9% (2026E) [10] - Net profit margin: 26.2% (2023A), 30.6% (2024E), 33.5% (2025E), 36.5% (2026E) [10]