农林牧渔行业2024年第46周报：降温潮下，如何看畜禽链供需变化？

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the supply and demand changes in the livestock chain amid a cooling trend [1] - The report highlights the rebound in pig prices and the need to focus on the sustainability of the current cycle [1][3] - It suggests that the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited, with seasonal growth in demand anticipated, potentially extending the pig price boom cycle [4] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Sector - As of November 23, the national average pig price is 16.43 CNY/kg, up 0.24% from the previous week, with self-breeding and self-raising operations earning over 300 CNY per head [3] - The average weight of pigs marketed this week is 126.73 kg, with a slight increase in the willingness of smallholders to sell [3] - The report indicates that the price of piglets has room for decline due to recent weather changes affecting restocking [3] - The report recommends focusing on core assets, with top picks being "Wens Foodstuff" and "Muyuan Foods" for large pigs, and "Hua Tong" and "Shen Nong Group" for small pigs [4] 2. Poultry Sector - The report notes a significant gap in the breeding stock of broiler chickens, with high prices for chicks maintained [5] - The average price for broiler chicks in Shandong is 5.00 CNY/chick, reflecting a slight increase [5] - The report suggests that the supply of broiler chicks is marginally declining, and with consumption-boosting policies, there is potential for an upward trend in the market [5] - For yellow chickens, the report indicates a confirmed supply contraction, with the lowest production capacity since 2018 [6] 3. Feed Sector - The report highlights "Haida Group" as a key recommendation, noting improvements in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [7] - It mentions that the market for various aquaculture species is expected to improve, with price elasticity becoming more pronounced [8] 4. Planting Sector - The report discusses the acceleration of genetically modified technology applications and the potential benefits for leading seed companies [9] - It notes the development of the low-altitude economy, with significant market potential in agricultural applications [9] 5. Pet Sector - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic pet brands, with significant sales increases during the Double 11 shopping festival [11] - It notes a continuous growth trend in pet food exports, with a year-on-year increase of 25.88% in volume and 23.19% in value [11] - Key recommendations include "Guai Bao Pet," "Zhong Chong Co.," and "Pei Ti Co." [11]