宏观点评：美元创新高，人民币汇率的韧性和风险是什么？

Group 1: USD Strength and RMB Resilience - The USD index reached a new high of 107.49 on November 22, surpassing levels from late June 2023 and approaching levels seen in October 2023[4] - The RMB exchange rate moved from approximately 7.1 in early October to around 7.25 by late November, showing resilience despite the strong USD[4] - Current USD to RMB levels are not considered high compared to 7.27 in late June and 7.3 in October 2022, indicating RMB's relative strength[4] Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - Domestic policies have improved economic growth expectations, reversing previous pessimism and contributing to RMB's resilience[4] - The exit of foreign trade companies from interest rate arbitrage has led to a concentrated release of settlement demand, supporting the RMB[5] - The "trade surplus not settled" gap has shown signs of slowing expansion, indicating a potential return of USD income to the domestic market[6] Group 3: Risks to RMB Exchange Rate - Short-term risks include the potential for the USD to strengthen further if the US economy shows resilience and the Fed pauses rate hikes in December[9] - Mid-term risks involve the possibility of the Euro weakening, which could maintain USD strength due to economic recovery issues in core Eurozone countries[10] - Long-term risks stem from the Biden administration's fiscal policies, which may continue to support a strong USD despite concerns over US sovereign credit[10] Group 4: Commodity Market Implications - The strengthening USD has led to a decline in commodity prices, with COMEX gold and LME copper prices dropping to $2,576 per ounce and $8,768 per ton, respectively[11] - A further strengthening of the USD may create buying opportunities in commodities, particularly gold, which remains a key asset in portfolio diversification[11] - Demand for metals is expected to rise due to technological advancements, particularly in AI and data centers, which will drive consumption of copper and tin[11]