煤炭行业定期报告：气温降低电厂开启去库，煤价不必悲观

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent drop in coal prices is not a cause for pessimism, as demand is expected to stabilize with the onset of colder weather and increased electricity consumption [2]. - The coal supply is under pressure due to strict capacity controls and environmental regulations, leading to a potential long-term scarcity of resources [2]. - The report suggests that coal remains a critical energy source, with resilient demand expected despite macroeconomic challenges and the growth of renewable energy [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.72 percentage points [14]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 3.08%, while the Shanghai Composite has risen by 12.67% [14]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of November 22, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 824 CNY/ton, down 13 CNY/ton week-on-week [27]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 84.2%, reflecting a slight increase [27]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month but down 14 CNY/ton year-on-year [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic coal prices have seen minor declines, with the Inner Mongolia price at 697 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. - The price for Shanxi weakly sticky coal is 700 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. 2.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in the three provinces is 84.2%, with Inner Mongolia at 91.2% and Shaanxi at 92.3% [51]. 2.4.2 Demand - Daily coal consumption by six major power plants increased to 81.4 million tons, up 5 million tons week-on-week [53]. 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The inventory of coal production enterprises is 14.048 million tons, down 3.2 million tons week-on-week [71]. 3. Coking Coal - The price for coking coal remains stable, with the main coking coal price at 1640 CNY/ton as of November 22, 2024 [2]. - The report indicates that coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support and slight increases in production rates [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [2].