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房地产行业定期报告:北上深取消普宅标准,34城新房成交环比+6%
Huafu Securities·2024-11-24 10:59

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The cancellation of ordinary residential standards in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to reduce transaction costs in the second-hand housing market, leading to a recovery in sales [1][2]. - The current market recovery is anticipated to progress through phases of alleviated liquidity pressure, continued supply contraction, stabilization of housing prices, and a resurgence in sales and construction activities [2]. Sales Review (11.17-11.23) - A total of 22,000 new homes were sold across 34 monitored cities, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6%. Cumulatively, 807,000 homes have been sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.4% [3][13]. - Sales in first-tier cities reached 7,166 units, up 2.5% from the previous week, while second-tier cities saw sales of 12,569 units, an increase of 18.7%. In contrast, third-tier cities experienced a decline of 33.2%, with sales of 1,882 units [3][14]. Land Supply (11.10-11.16) - The planned construction area for residential land across 100 cities was 2,257 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 34,908 million square meters in 2024, down 33.1% year-on-year. The supply-demand ratio stands at 1.59 [34][35]. - The average land listing price across 100 cities was 3,444 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,673 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 11.3% but a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37][38]. Land Transactions (11.10-11.16) - The total planned construction area for residential land transactions was 1,124 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 21,935 million square meters in 2024, down 23.9% year-on-year [51][54]. - The average transaction price for residential land across 100 cities was 6,309 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week but a significant year-on-year increase of 53.7% [54][55].