策略周观点：短期降温，但牛市根基还在

Core Insights - The report indicates a short-term cooling in the market, but the foundation for a bull market remains intact. The primary driving force behind the transition from bear to bull market is the reduction in equity financing driven by market policies, which has altered the supply-demand dynamics in the stock market. Since the second half of 2023, the scale of equity financing has fallen below the dividends paid by listed companies, a phenomenon previously observed in 1995, 2005, and 2013, which subsequently led to significant bull markets regardless of economic conditions [7][8][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The first major force supporting the bull market is the policy-driven reduction in equity financing, which has changed the supply-demand structure of the stock market. It is anticipated that the scale of equity financing will not quickly rebound in the short term [8][10]. - The second force is the economic policy aimed at mitigating real estate risks. Investors are increasingly focused on economic policies, particularly those related to real estate and fiscal measures. The direction of these policies is deemed more important than short-term results [10][12]. - Recent market adjustments are viewed as a cooling of speculative short-term funds rather than a fundamental shift in market conditions. Historical patterns suggest that rapid increases in turnover rates during bull markets often lead to subsequent periods of quarterly market corrections [13][17]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a sequential investment strategy prioritizing financial and real estate sectors, followed by media, internet, and consumer electronics, then upstream cyclical sectors, and finally consumer sectors that have experienced significant declines [18][19]. - The report highlights that the current market environment is characterized by a strong inflow of retail investor funds, although the speed of this inflow is not as rapid as during the 2014-2015 bull market. Recent trends show a significant increase in new investor accounts, but interest in stock trading has begun to decline [17][18]. - The report emphasizes that low-priced stocks and those with poor performance are likely to outperform the market in the current environment, indicating a potential shift from speculative trading to institutional investment styles [18][19].