宏观点评：直面挑战，保持定力-特朗普未来对华政策、影响及对策

Group 1: Impact of Trump's New Policies - Trump's new policies are expected to lead to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and a rise in gold's safe-haven value[1] - Tariffs may be imposed at rates of 10-20% on overseas goods and over 60% on specific economies, impacting output and pushing inflation higher[8] - The anticipated fiscal deficit could reach $7.5 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies, exacerbating existing fiscal pressures[48] Group 2: Domestic Market Effects - Rising U.S. Treasury yields and tariff risks may temporarily pressure emerging markets and suppress market risk appetite[2] - Industries with high export ratios may face short-term challenges due to declining market share and rising costs, but this could also trigger a new cycle of capital expenditure[2] - The domestic economic policy must focus on expanding consumption and investment, with a need for fiscal policy to increase counter-cyclical efforts[2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's path to interest rate cuts may be more challenging due to inflationary pressures from Trump's policies and the role of consumption in the economy[1] - There remains approximately 30 basis points of room for interest rate cuts in 2025, contingent on fiscal policy adjustments[2] Group 4: Capital Market Strategies - Encouraging technology companies to return to domestic listings, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board serving as a testing ground for these returns[3] - Expanding capital market openness to attract foreign investment, especially in light of potential new trade tensions under Trump's administration[3] - Enhancing financing channels for small and medium-sized tech enterprises through innovative collateral options and tailored regulatory policies[3]