行业研究——周报：原油周报：俄乌地缘风险再次加剧，国际油价回升

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the current oil price cycle is fundamentally driven by supply-side factors, with some oil-producing countries shifting from a market share competition strategy to a price-supporting strategy. The U.S. oil production faces constraints due to resource degradation and inflationary pressures, while OPEC+ maintains a strong willingness and capability to support high oil prices. The overall supply-demand balance for oil remains tight, suggesting that oil prices are likely to remain at mid-to-high levels in the medium to long term [14][15]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 22, 2024, international oil prices have generally risen, with Brent and WTI prices at $75.17 and $71.24 per barrel, respectively. This increase is attributed to heightened supply risks due to geopolitical tensions and temporary production halts in Norway, despite some downward pressure from rising U.S. crude oil inventories [13][23]. Oil Price Outlook - The report suggests that the long-term production capacity of U.S. shale oil is limited, and global oil demand is expected to continue growing despite economic slowdowns and energy transitions. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its production cuts, which will support oil prices in the medium to long term [14][15]. Oil and Gas Sector Performance - As of November 22, 2024, the oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 163.31% since 2022, while the refining and trading sector has increased by 23.96%. The overall performance of the oil and gas sector remains strong despite recent fluctuations [17][18]. Oil Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.2 million barrels per day as of November 15, 2024, showing a decrease of 200,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The report also notes a slight increase in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. [19]. Oil Inventory - As of November 15, 2024, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 1.945 million barrels, with total inventories at 819 million barrels. Strategic reserves also saw an increase, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][19]. Related Companies - The report highlights several related companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina), among others, as key players in the oil and gas sector [3].