Monetary Market Insights - The central bank's net liquidity injection this week was 66.8 billion yuan, while the Ministry of Finance conducted a 120 billion yuan cash deposit operation with a winning rate down by 12 basis points to 2.16%[3] - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos increased by 0.20 trillion yuan to 7.60 trillion yuan, although the overall scale remains lower than the same period last month[21] - The DR007 rate fell to around 1.65%, indicating a slight easing in the liquidity environment despite some tightening due to large reverse repos[3] Government Debt and Financing - Upcoming government debt payments will total 830.1 billion yuan, with net payments expected to rise from 433.6 billion yuan this week to 793.3 billion yuan, marking a new high since September[27][28] - The total issuance of replacement bonds in November reached 1.0852 trillion yuan, exceeding previous expectations, while the net financing scale for local bonds hit a record high of 1.19 trillion yuan for the year[27] - For December, the expected issuance of government bonds is projected at 1.67 trillion yuan, with a net financing scale of approximately 1.05 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 780 billion yuan from November[32] Market Trends and Expectations - The central bank's tolerance for the DR007 rate to deviate from the OMO rate by more than 10 basis points has increased, suggesting a potential shift in policy approach[25] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is anticipated to reach around 1 trillion yuan in December, alongside approximately 910 billion yuan in replacement bonds, indicating a robust financing strategy[32] - Risk factors include potential underperformance of monetary policy and unexpected fluctuations in liquidity conditions, which could impact market stability[7]
流动性与机构行为周度跟踪：供给高峰就在未来一至两周 央行需要降准对冲吗？
Xinda Securities·2024-11-24 12:00