商贸零售行业跟踪周报：奢侈品集团估值降至历史低值区间，等待经营拐点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the luxury goods sector [1] Core Insights - The luxury goods sector in the Asia-Pacific region experienced a general revenue contraction in Q3 2024, with notable deceleration in Japan. Brands like Hermès and Prada showed growth with comparable revenue growth rates of 1% and 12% respectively, while other luxury groups such as LVMH, Richemont, Kering, and Tapestry saw declines of -16%, -18%, -30%, and -5% respectively [2][19] - The cosmetics sector in China continues to contract, with brands like Estée Lauder, L'Oréal, Shiseido, and Amorepacific showing comparable revenue growth rates of -11%, -7%, -13%, -2%, and 3% respectively, indicating a continued downward trend [2][20] - The stock prices of luxury goods companies have fallen to historical low valuation ranges, with P/E ratios for LVMH, Richemont, Kering, Prada, Tapestry, Estée Lauder, and L'Oréal at 22, 32, 21, 23, 11, 84, and 42 respectively, suggesting potential value in the sector as consumer policies in China may stimulate luxury consumption [2][20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Insights - The luxury goods sector's revenue in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) continues to show divergence, with Hermès and Prada growing while others decline. The Japanese market has also seen a significant slowdown in revenue growth across various luxury brands [19] - The cosmetics sector in China is waiting for a revenue inflection point as growth rates have turned negative across major brands [20] 2. Market Performance - The report notes that the luxury goods sector's stock prices are at historical lows, indicating potential investment opportunities as the market adjusts to new consumer policies [2][20] 3. Company Valuation Table - A detailed valuation table is provided, showing various companies' market caps, stock prices, and projected earnings, with several companies rated as "Buy" or "Overweight" based on their growth potential [27][30]