房地产开发2024W47：本周新房成交同比+4.3%，一线城市取消普宅和非普宅标准

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 4.3% year-on-year increase in new home transactions, with first-tier cities canceling the distinction between ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, which is expected to lower transaction costs [3][10]. - The report anticipates further downward adjustments in interest rates, with the current 5-year LPR remaining at 3.6% and new mortgage rates potentially entering the "2" range, easing the financial burden on homebuyers [3][10]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this sector can reflect broader economic trends [3]. Summary by Sections 1. November LPR and Policy Changes - The 5-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.6%, with expectations for future reductions. The average new mortgage rate is estimated to be around 3% [3][10]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have eliminated the classification of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, aligning tax policies to reduce transaction costs [3][10]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.77 percentage points, ranking 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [3][12]. - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new home sales of 2.607 million square meters, a 12.9% increase from the previous week and a 4.3% increase year-on-year [3][25]. 3. New and Second-Hand Home Transactions - New home sales in first-tier cities reached 848,000 square meters, with a 12.7% week-on-week increase and a 39.0% year-on-year increase [3][25]. - Second-hand home transactions in 13 sample cities totaled 1.202 million square meters, reflecting a 7.6% decrease week-on-week and a 2.4% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. 4. Credit Bond Issuance - A total of 22 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, amounting to 16.965 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 8.677 billion yuan, indicating increased market activity [3][36]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to favorable policy changes and improving competitive dynamics within the industry. Key companies recommended include Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and others [3][3].