策略定期研究：回调结束了吗？

Market Insights - The market continues to adjust, with the overall A-share market down by 2.08%. The trading volume increased from 1.796 trillion yuan on Monday to 1.832 trillion yuan on Friday, indicating a narrowing of previous trading volumes but not the main reason for the adjustment [2][14][15] - Major indices have experienced two consecutive weeks of decline, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices suffering heavier losses compared to the CSI Dividend index. The technology and financial real estate sectors faced significant setbacks, while cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors saw smaller declines [2][14][15] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and North Korea's military threats, have suppressed market risk appetite. The market is currently in a policy and earnings vacuum, making it susceptible to external disturbances [2][14][15] Market Observation - The stock-bond yield spread has risen to 1.21%, positioned between +1 and +2 standard deviations, with a decrease in the valuation dispersion coefficient by 8.6% [3][22] - Market sentiment has contracted, with the five-dimensional market sentiment index decreasing by 35.9% to 32.9. The industry rotation intensity has increased, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks, particularly in lithium battery electrolyte and state-owned enterprises [3][23] - Trading volume has decreased, with textile and apparel, banking, and basic chemicals showing a higher proportion of bullish stocks. There are potential alpha opportunities within the basic chemicals, public utilities, and automotive sectors [3][26] Industry Highlights - The 2024 World Internet Conference was held in Wuzhen, focusing on artificial intelligence, which is a key driver of new productive forces. Investment opportunities are suggested across the AI industry chain, from upstream chip manufacturing to downstream applications [4][45] - The Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission issued a plan to enhance low-altitude flight service management, which is expected to benefit the low-altitude economy. Investment opportunities are highlighted in low-altitude aircraft manufacturing and related infrastructure [4][46] - New regulations in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector aim to optimize supply-side dynamics, encouraging technological innovation and quality improvement while addressing overcapacity challenges [4][47] Industry Configuration - The report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring, sustained demand growth, and turnaround opportunities in the current market vacuum. Structural opportunities remain due to significant trading volumes [4][50] - Increased policy support for mergers and acquisitions is anticipated, promoting industry integration and market capitalization management [4][50] - The third-quarter earnings report period has concluded, leading to a performance vacuum. Attention is drawn to sectors like non-bank financials, electronics, and machinery that may experience demand growth and potential recovery in the real estate and power equipment sectors [4][50]