钢铁行业周报：政策预期再起，关注冬储开启

Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains a "Follow the Market" rating, indicating a stable outlook relative to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-demand fundamentals showing stability but lacking improvement, leading to a bearish outlook [2][14]. - The profitability of steel mills remains resilient despite a slight decline in operating rates, supported by stable margins in rebar and hot-rolled steel [16]. - The upcoming winter storage season is expected to influence raw material inventory levels and market dynamics [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The steel market is showing strong fluctuations, with the black commodity prices experiencing volatility due to external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations [14]. - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased to 2.358 million tons, while steel production increased by 0.9% week-on-week but decreased by 4.47% year-on-year [14][15]. - Steel consumption showed a week-on-week increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.68%, indicating some resilience in construction materials [14]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel industry outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.13% compared to a 2.60% drop in the CSI 300 index [19]. - The current PE (TTM) for the steel industry is 24.40, and the PB (LF) is 0.94, indicating a mid-range valuation among industries [19]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the steel sector include Guangda Special Materials (+22.59%) and Wujin Stainless Steel (+9.64%), while Shagang Group saw a significant decline of -18.59% [19]. 3. Current Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Chinese government has initiated a 6 trillion yuan local government debt limit, with some provinces already starting to issue bonds [50]. - Economic indicators suggest a positive trend, with retail sales and industrial output showing growth [51]. - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to maintain cautious monetary policies, impacting global economic conditions [52][53]. 4. Steel and Product Production - The operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces have decreased, with the average daily pig iron output slightly down [15]. - The production of major steel products reached 8.693 million tons, with a notable increase in wire rods and hot-rolled products [14]. 5. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 25.59 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% week-on-week, while port inventories remain high at 153.19 million tons [15]. 6. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coking coal mines is at 90.93%, with inventories increasing, indicating a stable supply chain [15]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand - Coking coal and coke inventories have risen, reflecting adjustments in production and market demand [15]. 8. Market Outlook - The steel industry is expected to navigate a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities in the fourth quarter, with a focus on policy support for demand expansion [17].