煤炭周报：寒潮扰动来袭，静待反弹开启

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to see a rebound due to the impact of cold weather, which is anticipated to increase demand for coal as heating needs rise [3] - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize around 850 RMB/ton, with a potential rise to over 1000 RMB/ton by 2025, supported by a recovering economy and stable demand [3][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has underperformed the market with a decline of 0.9% compared to a 1.9% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [116] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal has decreased by 1.55% to 824 RMB/ton, while coking coal prices remained stable at 1640 RMB/ton [5][54] Price Analysis - The report indicates a divergence in coal prices, with thermal coal prices declining while coking coal prices have remained stable [54] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port for Q5500 grade is reported at 824 RMB/ton, down 1.55% from the previous week [54][5] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in coal supply due to the resumption of production in major mining areas, while demand remains stable [3] - The report highlights that the total coal production in China for the first ten months of 2024 reached 3.892 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [119] Inventory Analysis - The total inventory at major ports has increased, with southern ports showing a rise of 1.99% and northern ports increasing by 5.27% [91] - The report states that the inventory at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 1.15% to 6.85 million tons [92] International Market - The report discusses the international coal market, noting a narrowing price gap between domestic and international coal prices, with the price difference for thermal coal at 42.38 RMB/ton [115] - The Newcastle port thermal coal price is reported at 87.8 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.57% [106]