军工行业2025年度策略：承前启后关键年份，景气加速可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the military industry [3] Core Insights - The military industry is at a turning point, with expectations for an upward trend in 2025 as disruptive factors diminish. Key variables to observe include the issuance of new orders for mass production models and the progress of new equipment transitioning to mass production [3][4] - The military sector is showing signs of recovery, with various positive changes noted in the fourth quarter. Companies in the aerospace supply chain are disclosing new orders, and military enterprises are accelerating project completion [4][5] - The global geopolitical situation remains tense, with steady growth in national defense spending supporting the military industry's fundamentals. The military trade market is entering a new development phase, with China expected to gain more market share due to its high-performance and cost-effective new equipment [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Key Variables: Orders and New Model Progress - The military industry is currently at a bottom turning point, with expectations for an upward trend driven by new orders and equipment development [10][11] - The military sector's performance in Q3 2024 shows a decline in revenue and profit due to delayed orders, but recovery is anticipated [12][13] 2. Long-term Positive Outlook for National Defense - The military industry is a long-term core asset, with national defense being a necessity for major powers. The 2025 year is critical for achieving the goals set in the 14th Five-Year Plan and initiating the 15th Five-Year Plan [14][15] - National defense spending is projected to increase, with a budget of 1.665 trillion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [14][209] 3. Focus on Structural Opportunities and New Product Directions - Emphasis on main battle equipment, particularly consumable munitions and platform-type equipment, is crucial for the military sector [17][18] - The development of new technologies and industries, such as satellite internet and low-altitude economy, is highlighted as a significant growth area for the military industry [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include new fighter aircraft manufacturers, large aircraft manufacturers, and suppliers of guided control systems and low-altitude air traffic management systems [6]