煤炭开采行业周报：2025年长协政策落地，高卡煤溢价有望提高

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry, anticipating a price increase for high-calorific coal due to the implementation of long-term contracts in 2025 [1]. Core Views - The implementation of the long-term contract policy in 2025 is expected to enhance the premium for high-calorific coal. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice regarding the signing and performance of medium- and long-term contracts, which will reduce the performance requirement from 90% in 2024 to a minimum of 75% in 2025 [1]. - The report highlights that overseas natural gas prices have rebounded, while port coal prices have slightly decreased. For instance, the average closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 832 RMB/ton, down 1.37% week-on-week [1]. - The report notes that coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port remain at a record high, with inventories reaching 6.98 million tons as of November 22, 2024, which is a 10.97% increase year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report indicates that the coal mining sector is experiencing a mixed market environment, with some fluctuations in coal prices and inventory levels. The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is reported at 832 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 12 RMB/ton week-on-week [1][6]. - The average price of mixed thermal coal in Yulin, Shaanxi, is reported at 725 RMB/ton, showing no change week-on-week [1][8]. Supply and Demand Tracking - The report mentions a recovery in the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants, which is currently at 68.8%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points week-on-week [1][18]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills is reported at 6957 cubic meters, with a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week [1][26]. Inventory Tracking - Coal inventories at major ports are at historically high levels, with Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory at 6.98 million tons, marking a 10.97% increase year-on-year [1][30]. - The report also notes that the inventory levels of coking coal at independent coking plants are stable, with no significant changes reported [1][32]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides forecasts for key companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, with recommendations to focus on companies with a price-to-book ratio below 1, such as Shanghai Energy [1][35]. - The expected dividend yields for major coal companies are highlighted, with China Shenhua projected to have a dividend yield of 5.9% for 2023 [1][34].