有色金属行业周报：二次通胀逻辑验证金价回升，下游增产锂价冲高回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in gold prices driven by the validation of a secondary inflation logic, with macroeconomic indicators showing a mixed outlook for the U.S. economy [1]. - Industrial metals like copper are expected to show price elasticity due to macroeconomic expectations and demand resonance, despite pressure from a strong U.S. dollar [1]. - The lithium market is experiencing price fluctuations due to downstream production increases, with expectations of short-term price stability [1]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have rebounded as the U.S. services PMI exceeded expectations at 57, while consumer confidence fell short at 71.8. The ongoing inflation resilience in the U.S. supports gold as an anti-inflation asset [1]. - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The strong U.S. dollar is pressuring copper prices, but a decrease in global copper inventory (579,000 tons, down 10,700 tons) and stable domestic demand are expected to support prices [1]. - Aluminum: The aluminum sector faces expanding profit loss ratios and potential production cuts, with current operating capacity at 43.684 million tons, up 37,000 tons from last week [1]. - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Ming Tai Aluminum, and China Hongqiao [1]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have seen a slight increase to 80,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene remains stable at 760 USD/ton. The market is expected to stabilize in the short term despite a strong supply-demand imbalance [1]. - Silicon Metal: The price of silicon metal is under pressure due to high electricity costs and weak demand, with average costs at 12,255.31 CNY/ton [1]. - Recommended stocks include Tibet Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium [1].