XPENG(XPEV) 光大证券·2024-11-25 01:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 10.1 billion RMB in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.5%. The gross margin improved to 15.3%, up 18.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The Non-GAAP net loss was 1.53 billion RMB, a reduction of 45.1% year-on-year and an increase of 25.5% quarter-on-quarter, indicating overall performance met expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, automotive revenue reached 8.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.0%. The average selling price (ASP) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 16.3% quarter-on-quarter to 189,000 RMB, while delivery volume increased by 16% year-on-year and 54% quarter-on-quarter to 47,000 units. The automotive business gross margin improved to 8.6%, up 14.7 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Revenue from services and other businesses increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 91% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% to 1.31 billion RMB. The gross margin for this segment reached 60.1%, up 24.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - As of Q3 2024, the company had approximately 35.75 billion RMB in cash and cash equivalents, with management guiding for Q4 2024 delivery volume between 87,000 and 91,000 units [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a strong model cycle, with new models such as the Mona M03 and the P7+ showing strong order performance. The management anticipates at least four new or refreshed models to be launched in 2025, which is expected to drive sales and gross margin improvements [3] - The introduction of the P7+, which utilizes a new generation of autonomous driving hardware without LiDAR, is seen as a validation of the company's technological capabilities in the competitive smart vehicle market [3] - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits for 2024E-2026E to be approximately -4.78 billion, 5.36 billion, and 11.53 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting an upward revision in profit forecasts due to the anticipated strong model cycle and ongoing collaboration with Volkswagen [4]